
Fifteen years after Muammar Gaddafi’s overthrow, Libya remains divided between rival authorities whose competing institutions and control of oil revenues sustain instability. The African Union has helped advance a national reconciliation charter, seeking to bridge the divide. However, the organization’s influence faces a test as UN-led and Libyan-led election initiatives emerge. Recent agreements on a unified budget, military cooperation, and a roadmap toward elections offer diplomatic momentum. Yet Libya’s history of stalled accords shows that signing agreements is easier than implementing them. The AU’s comparative advantage is reconciliation, social cohesion, and transitional justice, while other actors focus more heavily on electoral and institutional processes. The organization could gain leverage by coordinating existing processes and helping secure implementation. Without stronger follow-through, however, fragmented domestic interests and foreign intervention may continue to limit the AU’s role in Libya.
