Ethiopia-Eritrea Rivalry Threatens Tigray Peace Agreement

Ethiopia’s dispute with Eritrea over access to the Red Sea is complicating implementation of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement that ended the Tigray war. Although large-scale fighting has stopped, key provisions remain incomplete: foreign and non-federal forces have not fully withdrawn, Western Tigray remains outside Tigrayan administration, disarmament is unfinished, and Tigray remains politically marginalized. Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to Eritrea’s Assab port has intensified tensions. Addis Ababa frames sea access as a strategic and historical necessity, while Asmara views such claims as a threat to its sovereignty. The rivalry has also created incentives for Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front to use unresolved provisions as political leverage. Tigrayans bear the greatest costs of the unresolved tensions, with more than 760,000 people still displaced. Unless the port dispute and Tigray’s political reintegration are addressed separately, regional rivalry could keep the peace agreement frozen and increase the risk of renewed conflict.