Economists and asset managers caution that sub-Saharan Africa’s economic strain will likely persist through the end of 2026, even after a US-Iran ceasefire, tempering hopes of quick relief. Analysts argue the conflict’s lasting effects on fuel prices, inflation, and government finances will continue to weigh on the region’s recovery. S&P Ratings says the fiscal harm is already locked into this year’s outlook. It recently trimmed South Africa’s growth forecasts by 20 basis points to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Nigeria’s projections were cut further, by 30 basis points, to 3.7% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027. Economists also warned that disruptions to energy and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have increased inflationary pressures and food security risks, leaving African policymakers with only limited room to ease the prolonged economic strain.
Semafor